rk comments on What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?

[rk]

I’m confused by the predictions of death rates for the global population—seems like that’s what would happen only if the 50% of world population is infected all at once. Is it just exponential growth that’s doing the work there? I’m also confused about how long contagion is well-modelled as exponential