If there is a useful idea about the future which triggers no ridiculous or improbable filters, doesn’t that imply many people will have already accepted that idea, using it and removing the profit from knowing it? To make money, you need an edge; being able to find ignored gems in the ‘possible ridiculous futures’ sounds like a good strategy.
If there is a useful idea about the future which triggers no ridiculous or improbable filters, doesn’t that imply many people will have already accepted that idea, using it and removing the profit from knowing it?
Not necessarily. For example, it could be that no one had thought of the idea in question but once someone thought of the idea the usefulness is immediately obvious.
If there is a useful idea about the future which triggers no ridiculous or improbable filters, doesn’t that imply many people will have already accepted that idea, using it and removing the profit from knowing it? To make money, you need an edge; being able to find ignored gems in the ‘possible ridiculous futures’ sounds like a good strategy.
Not necessarily. For example, it could be that no one had thought of the idea in question but once someone thought of the idea the usefulness is immediately obvious.
Sure, but that implies a rather inefficient market—not even exploring major possibilities! Wouldn’t work on Wall Street, I don’t think.
An idea can still be useful even if everyone else knows about it too. Life isn’t a zero-sum game.