catastrophic social collapse seems to require something like famine
Not necessarily. When the last petroleum is refined, rest assured that the tanks and warplanes will be the very last vehicles to run out of gas. And bullets will continue to be produced long after it is no longer possible to buy a steel fork.
R&D… efficient services… economy of scale… new technologies will appear
Your belief that something like present technological advancement could continue after a cataclysmic collapse boggles my mind. The one historical precedent we have—the Dark Ages—teaches the exact opposite lesson. Reversion to barbarism—and a barbarism armed with the remnants of the finest modern weaponry, this time around—is the more likely outcome.
Your belief that something like present technological advancement could continue after a cataclysmic collapse boggles my mind. The one historical precedent we have—the Dark Ages—teaches the exact opposite lesson.
IIRC, Robert Wright argued in his book NonZero that technological development had stagnated when the Roman Empire reached its apex, and that the dark ages actual brought several important innovations. These included better harnesses, better plows, and nailed iron horse shoes, all of which increased agricultural yield. The Dark Ages also saw improvements to water-wheel technology, which led to much wider use if it.
He also makes the case that all the fractured polities led to greater innovations in the social and economic spheres as well.
The key is that some group would set up some form of government. My best guess is that governments which established rule of law, including respect for private property, would become more powerful relative to other governments. Technological progress would begin again.
Also, see what I just wrote to Roko about why resource scarcity is unlikely to be as a great a problem as you think and why wars and famines are unlikely to affect wealthy countries as a result of resource scarcity.
belief that something like present technological advancement could continue after a cataclysmic collapse boggles my mind.
It could—and most probably would—rise up again, eventually. Rising up from the half-buried wreckage of modern civilization is easier than building it from scratch.
But I don’t go as far as Vladimir and say it’s virtually guaranteed. One scenario is that the survivors could all fall to a new religion that preached that technology itself was evil. This religion might suppress technological development for longer than Christianity suppressed it in the dark ages—which was 1000 years. I still think it is likely that technology would eventually make it through, but perhaps it would be used to create a global totalitarian state?
It could—and most probably would—rise up again, eventually. Rising up from the half-buried wreckage of modern civilization is easier than building it from scratch.
Not necessarily. To be blunt, we’ve basically exhausted practically all the useful non-renewal natural resources (ores, etc.) that a civilization could access with 1200s-level technology. They’d have to mine our ruins for metals and such—and much of it is going to be locked up in forms that are completely useless.
Of course it’s nowhere near the guaranteed—notice, for example, that I excluded all other catastrophic risks from consideration in that scenario, such as crazy wars for scraps, only looking at the effects of shortage of resources stopping much of the industry, because of dependencies that weren’t ensured.
Not necessarily. When the last petroleum is refined, rest assured that the tanks and warplanes will be the very last vehicles to run out of gas. And bullets will continue to be produced long after it is no longer possible to buy a steel fork.
Your belief that something like present technological advancement could continue after a cataclysmic collapse boggles my mind. The one historical precedent we have—the Dark Ages—teaches the exact opposite lesson. Reversion to barbarism—and a barbarism armed with the remnants of the finest modern weaponry, this time around—is the more likely outcome.
IIRC, Robert Wright argued in his book NonZero that technological development had stagnated when the Roman Empire reached its apex, and that the dark ages actual brought several important innovations. These included better harnesses, better plows, and nailed iron horse shoes, all of which increased agricultural yield. The Dark Ages also saw improvements to water-wheel technology, which led to much wider use if it.
He also makes the case that all the fractured polities led to greater innovations in the social and economic spheres as well.
The key is that some group would set up some form of government. My best guess is that governments which established rule of law, including respect for private property, would become more powerful relative to other governments. Technological progress would begin again.
Also, see what I just wrote to Roko about why resource scarcity is unlikely to be as a great a problem as you think and why wars and famines are unlikely to affect wealthy countries as a result of resource scarcity.
It could—and most probably would—rise up again, eventually. Rising up from the half-buried wreckage of modern civilization is easier than building it from scratch.
But I don’t go as far as Vladimir and say it’s virtually guaranteed. One scenario is that the survivors could all fall to a new religion that preached that technology itself was evil. This religion might suppress technological development for longer than Christianity suppressed it in the dark ages—which was 1000 years. I still think it is likely that technology would eventually make it through, but perhaps it would be used to create a global totalitarian state?
Not necessarily. To be blunt, we’ve basically exhausted practically all the useful non-renewal natural resources (ores, etc.) that a civilization could access with 1200s-level technology. They’d have to mine our ruins for metals and such—and much of it is going to be locked up in forms that are completely useless.
Of course it’s nowhere near the guaranteed—notice, for example, that I excluded all other catastrophic risks from consideration in that scenario, such as crazy wars for scraps, only looking at the effects of shortage of resources stopping much of the industry, because of dependencies that weren’t ensured.