I agree with all of this (and I admire its clarity). In addition, I believe that the SIA-formulated questions are generally the important ones, for roughly the reason that the consequences of our choices are generally more like value is proportional to correct actions than value is proportional to fraction of actions correct (across all observers subjectively indistinguishable from me). (Our choices seem to be local in some sense; their effects are independent of the choices of our faraway subjectively-indistinguishable counterparts, and their effects seem to scale with our numbers. Perhaps some formalization of bigger universes matter more is equivalent.)
I’m not sure about this, but perhaps with some kind of locality assumption, the intuitive sense of probability as something like odds at which I’m indifferent to bet (under certain idealizations) reduces to SIA probability, whereas SSA probability would correspond to something like odds at which I’m indifferent to bet if the value from winning is proportional to the fraction rather than the number of correct bets. Again, SSA is in conflict with bigger universes matter more; assuming locality, this is particularly disturbing since it roughly means that the value of a choice is inversely proportional to the number of similarly-situated choosers.
I agree with all of this (and I admire its clarity). In addition, I believe that the SIA-formulated questions are generally the important ones, for roughly the reason that the consequences of our choices are generally more like value is proportional to correct actions than value is proportional to fraction of actions correct (across all observers subjectively indistinguishable from me). (Our choices seem to be local in some sense; their effects are independent of the choices of our faraway subjectively-indistinguishable counterparts, and their effects seem to scale with our numbers. Perhaps some formalization of bigger universes matter more is equivalent.)
I’m not sure about this, but perhaps with some kind of locality assumption, the intuitive sense of probability as something like odds at which I’m indifferent to bet (under certain idealizations) reduces to SIA probability, whereas SSA probability would correspond to something like odds at which I’m indifferent to bet if the value from winning is proportional to the fraction rather than the number of correct bets. Again, SSA is in conflict with bigger universes matter more; assuming locality, this is particularly disturbing since it roughly means that the value of a choice is inversely proportional to the number of similarly-situated choosers.