EDIT: That was too punchy and not precise. The reasoning behind the statement:
Most things which think they are me are horribly confused gasps of consciousness. Rational agents should believe the chances are small that their experiences are remotely genuine.
EDIT 2: After thinking about shminux’s comment, I have to retract my original statement about you readers not existing. Even if I’m a hopelessly confused Boltzmann brain, the referent “you” might still well exist. At minimum I have to think about existence more. Sorry!
To quote the adage, I’m a solipsist, and am surprised everyone else isn’t too. I think any intelligent agent should conclude that it is probably something akin to a Boltzmann brain. You could plausibly argue that I am cheating with pronoun references (other people might agree with the solipsistic logic, but centered around them). Is that what you are asking?
EDIT
Is there anything about the world that you expect would appear different to you because of this belief?
Not really. I think some of the problems with AIXI may be AIXI acting rationally where the desired behavior is irrational, but that’s the only time I can think of it coming up outside of a philosophy discussion.
I often use the concept of Boltzmann brain to relax or fall asleep. Thinking that this is the only moment you will ever get to feel alive and you will die a few moments from now is a good way to put your mind “in the now”. That said, if it actually were true I would expect the reality I perceive to be radically different. Almost everything I know about the outside world is really consistent and ordered and everything I’ve ever experienced supports the mainstream physical model of the universe. I don’t think there would be an entire history of the universe and Earth and such, which I’m able to confirm relatively well by going into the museum and and considering the evidence, if this were just a random fluke. I would expect many things to be far more incoherent.
I still think there’s a low chance it’s true. Not really low chance, the chance is probably higher than the chance that I will win in a lottery or that biblical God exists. And this belief doesn’t have much decision theoretic importance so I would probably ignore it even if I knew for sure that it’s true.
Btw, how do you resolve the paradox that you can’t trust your own senses and reasoning?
You could plausibly argue that I am cheating with pronoun references (other people might agree with the solipsistic logic, but centered around them). Is that what you are asking?
This game assumes that users actually are real people because otherwise asking about their opinions would be pointless. But now that you explained it I decided to change my downvote to upvote because I think the probability of this being true is low.
Of all possible minds thinking the thought that I am thinking right now, most aren’t living on earth, posting to Less Wrong. Most are random fluctuations in high-entropy soup after the heat-death of the universe, or bizarre minds capable of belief but not thought, or other deluded or confused agents. In all but a negligible fraction of these, you, maia, do not exist.
I could put numbers to it, but it would really be pulling them out of my butt—how certain are you that anthropic reasoning is valid? If it is valid (which seems more likely than not), then you quickly run into the problem of Boltzmann brains. Some people try to exorcise Boltzmann brains from their anthropic viewpoint, but I have no problem with biting the bullet that most brains are Boltzmann brains. The practical implications of that belief, assuming the world is as it appears to be, are (I believe) minimal.
You (the reader) do not exist.
EDIT: That was too punchy and not precise. The reasoning behind the statement:
Most things which think they are me are horribly confused gasps of consciousness. Rational agents should believe the chances are small that their experiences are remotely genuine.
EDIT 2: After thinking about shminux’s comment, I have to retract my original statement about you readers not existing. Even if I’m a hopelessly confused Boltzmann brain, the referent “you” might still well exist. At minimum I have to think about existence more. Sorry!
Cogito, ergo upvoto. :-)
.
To quote the adage, I’m a solipsist, and am surprised everyone else isn’t too. I think any intelligent agent should conclude that it is probably something akin to a Boltzmann brain. You could plausibly argue that I am cheating with pronoun references (other people might agree with the solipsistic logic, but centered around them). Is that what you are asking?
EDIT
Not really. I think some of the problems with AIXI may be AIXI acting rationally where the desired behavior is irrational, but that’s the only time I can think of it coming up outside of a philosophy discussion.
I often use the concept of Boltzmann brain to relax or fall asleep. Thinking that this is the only moment you will ever get to feel alive and you will die a few moments from now is a good way to put your mind “in the now”. That said, if it actually were true I would expect the reality I perceive to be radically different. Almost everything I know about the outside world is really consistent and ordered and everything I’ve ever experienced supports the mainstream physical model of the universe. I don’t think there would be an entire history of the universe and Earth and such, which I’m able to confirm relatively well by going into the museum and and considering the evidence, if this were just a random fluke. I would expect many things to be far more incoherent.
I still think there’s a low chance it’s true. Not really low chance, the chance is probably higher than the chance that I will win in a lottery or that biblical God exists. And this belief doesn’t have much decision theoretic importance so I would probably ignore it even if I knew for sure that it’s true.
Btw, how do you resolve the paradox that you can’t trust your own senses and reasoning?
This game assumes that users actually are real people because otherwise asking about their opinions would be pointless. But now that you explained it I decided to change my downvote to upvote because I think the probability of this being true is low.
Could you be more specific about what you mean by that?
Of all possible minds thinking the thought that I am thinking right now, most aren’t living on earth, posting to Less Wrong. Most are random fluctuations in high-entropy soup after the heat-death of the universe, or bizarre minds capable of belief but not thought, or other deluded or confused agents. In all but a negligible fraction of these, you, maia, do not exist.
What degree of certainty do you place on that belief?
I could put numbers to it, but it would really be pulling them out of my butt—how certain are you that anthropic reasoning is valid? If it is valid (which seems more likely than not), then you quickly run into the problem of Boltzmann brains. Some people try to exorcise Boltzmann brains from their anthropic viewpoint, but I have no problem with biting the bullet that most brains are Boltzmann brains. The practical implications of that belief, assuming the world is as it appears to be, are (I believe) minimal.
LessWrong member for [at least a few] months. Guys, it checks out.
… is what I would say if this was reddit.