Seems like we should consider the possibility that the UK strain is not as transmissible as the pre-print suggested given the large drop in cases? Unless we have evidence that their lockdown is actually much more severe than similar lockdowns? A quick look at the lockdown rules suggests it’s similar to the Bay Area’s for instance.
[To clarify: I think this was worded somewhat incorrectly—I didn’t update much on the probability of the pre-print being wrong, but I did update significantly on the implications of the higher transmissibility.]
I’m in the UK. Rules are stricter than ever but also people are taking it seriously, more than the 2nd lockdown. And it’s January and freezing cold so no one wants to go out anyway.
Seems like we should consider the possibility that the UK strain is not as transmissible as the pre-print suggested given the large drop in cases? Unless we have evidence that their lockdown is actually much more severe than similar lockdowns? A quick look at the lockdown rules suggests it’s similar to the Bay Area’s for instance.
[To clarify: I think this was worded somewhat incorrectly—I didn’t update much on the probability of the pre-print being wrong, but I did update significantly on the implications of the higher transmissibility.]
I’m in the UK. Rules are stricter than ever but also people are taking it seriously, more than the 2nd lockdown. And it’s January and freezing cold so no one wants to go out anyway.