The destruction of two oppressive empires which were engaging in largescale genocide would be the most obvious success criterion.
Yeah, but were these oppressive empires really engaging in largescale genocide before WWII or was it (partially) caused by WWII? If the latter, then that isn’t a point in its favor. If I remember correctly, before WWII the “final solution” was supposed to be the Madagascar Plan, not The Holocaust. The only oppressive empire I can think of that was engaging in largescale genocide pre-WWII survived the war (and even expanded its power as a result of it).
A more cynical point is that for the US at least it really did help the economy.
This is definitely not a consensus amongst economists. For instance:
It is commonly argued that World War II provided the stimulus that brought the American economy out of the Great Depression. The number of unemployed workers declined by 7,050,000 between 1940 and 1943, but the number in military service rose by 8,590,000. The reduction in unemployment can be explained by the draft, not by the economic recovery. The rise in real GNP presents similar problems. Most estimates show declines in real consumption spending, which means that consumers were worse off during the war. Business investment fell during the war. Government spending on the war effort exceeded the expansion in real GNP. These figures are suspect, however, because we know that government estimates of the value of munitions spending, to name one major area, were increasingly exaggerated as the war progressed. In fact, the extensive price controls, rationing, and government control of production render data on GNP, consumption, investment, and the price level less meaningful. How can we establish a consistent price index when government mandates eliminated the production of most consumer durable goods? What does the price of, say, gasoline mean when it is arbitrarily held at a low level and gasoline purchases are rationed to address the shortage created by the price controls? What does the price of new tires mean when no new tires are produced for consumers? For consumers, the recovery came with the war’s end, when they could again buy products that were unavailable during the war and unaffordable during the 1930s.
And as for this:
Also, a major result of the war was funding which went into research that lead to a lot of useful new technologies like radar.
The technologies that were developed for the war are indeed impressive, but what of the technologies that would have been developed had WWII not occurred? How would we know if the seen outweigh the unseen in this case? The previous question is not merely rhetorical.
Yeah, but were these oppressive empires really engaging in largescale genocide before WWII or was it (partially) caused by WWII? If I remember correctly, before WWII the “final solution” was supposed to be the Madagascar Plan, not The Holocaust.
The Madagascar Plan was never seriously considered, and when it was considered the war had already started (they were discussing it in 1940). People were already being placed in concentration camps in 1939. Moreover, the Madagascar Plan was a plan specifically for dealing with the Jews. The gays, Roma and other groups were not covered under that. Whether the Holocaust of the Jews was what the Nazi high command intended from the beginning is a matter of some debate. But given their general attitude even if Britain had quickly fallen, I have trouble believing that the Nazis would have stopped with putting all the European Jews on Madagascar, aside from the terrible loss of life that would have occurred in forcively adding millions of people to an environment with minimal infrastructure to support them.
Your point about the Soviet Union seems to be a valid one.
There is a more general problem here: There are some occasions where defensive wars need to be fought simply because if one doesn’t then the enemy will wind up at your doorstep. World War 2 seems to have been such a war for much of Europe. That’s less so for the US. But the overall point that having the war was better than the alternatives seems clear.
I’m sure you know this, but “WWII” is not a verb. The United States did not decide “to WWII” instead of “not WWIIing”.
Japan aggressively invaded neighboring countries for resources and engaged in ethnic cleansing. The United States imposed a gradually more strict embargo of military and dual-use materials, including eventually oil. This precipitated the Japanese invasion of the oil rich Dutch East Indies and the attack on Pearl Harbor to cover for it.
If the question is “What should Japan have done?” the answer is “Not try to conquer Asia and not attack Pearl Harbor.” If the question is “What should the United States have done?” the answer is not “Not try to conquer Asia and not attack Pearl Harbor.” The answer might be “Disband the Pacific Fleet,” or “Pay Japan not to invade its neighbors,” or “Ally with Japan against Britain,” or “Preemptively invade Japan,” etc., but if you’re trying to direct Japanese fleet movements or German concentration camp policy or the like, you’re not engaged in an exercise showing the United States should have done anything differently.
The technologies that were developed for the war are indeed impressive, but what of the technologies that would have been developed had WWII not occurred? How would we know if the seen outweigh the unseen in this case?
It’s impossible to prove that WWII did not prevent the development of arbitrarily wonderful technology.
It is also impossible to prove that the Great Depression would have ended in the absence of an economic event like WWII.
We’re talking about what might have happened if WWII didn’t get fought. No reasonable person would demand mathematical precision under those circumstances, and you’re assuming I’ve done just that.
This kind of pedantry makes it feel like work to talk to you any further.
Yeah, but were these oppressive empires really engaging in largescale genocide before WWII or was it (partially) caused by WWII? If the latter, then that isn’t a point in its favor. If I remember correctly, before WWII the “final solution” was supposed to be the Madagascar Plan, not The Holocaust. The only oppressive empire I can think of that was engaging in largescale genocide pre-WWII survived the war (and even expanded its power as a result of it).
This is definitely not a consensus amongst economists. For instance:
And as for this:
The technologies that were developed for the war are indeed impressive, but what of the technologies that would have been developed had WWII not occurred? How would we know if the seen outweigh the unseen in this case? The previous question is not merely rhetorical.
The Madagascar Plan was never seriously considered, and when it was considered the war had already started (they were discussing it in 1940). People were already being placed in concentration camps in 1939. Moreover, the Madagascar Plan was a plan specifically for dealing with the Jews. The gays, Roma and other groups were not covered under that. Whether the Holocaust of the Jews was what the Nazi high command intended from the beginning is a matter of some debate. But given their general attitude even if Britain had quickly fallen, I have trouble believing that the Nazis would have stopped with putting all the European Jews on Madagascar, aside from the terrible loss of life that would have occurred in forcively adding millions of people to an environment with minimal infrastructure to support them.
Your point about the Soviet Union seems to be a valid one.
There is a more general problem here: There are some occasions where defensive wars need to be fought simply because if one doesn’t then the enemy will wind up at your doorstep. World War 2 seems to have been such a war for much of Europe. That’s less so for the US. But the overall point that having the war was better than the alternatives seems clear.
I’m sure you know this, but “WWII” is not a verb. The United States did not decide “to WWII” instead of “not WWIIing”.
Japan aggressively invaded neighboring countries for resources and engaged in ethnic cleansing. The United States imposed a gradually more strict embargo of military and dual-use materials, including eventually oil. This precipitated the Japanese invasion of the oil rich Dutch East Indies and the attack on Pearl Harbor to cover for it.
If the question is “What should Japan have done?” the answer is “Not try to conquer Asia and not attack Pearl Harbor.” If the question is “What should the United States have done?” the answer is not “Not try to conquer Asia and not attack Pearl Harbor.” The answer might be “Disband the Pacific Fleet,” or “Pay Japan not to invade its neighbors,” or “Ally with Japan against Britain,” or “Preemptively invade Japan,” etc., but if you’re trying to direct Japanese fleet movements or German concentration camp policy or the like, you’re not engaged in an exercise showing the United States should have done anything differently.
It’s impossible to prove that WWII did not prevent the development of arbitrarily wonderful technology.
It is also impossible to prove that the Great Depression would have ended in the absence of an economic event like WWII.
I’m not asking for proof; I’m asking for evidence. Proof is way too high a standard for almost anything outside of logic or mathematics.
We’re talking about what might have happened if WWII didn’t get fought. No reasonable person would demand mathematical precision under those circumstances, and you’re assuming I’ve done just that.
This kind of pedantry makes it feel like work to talk to you any further.