I suspect that people here overestimate both the advantage of intelligence and the advantage of rationality in making predictions about the world.
Overestimate the advantages to making the best prediction in a field of predictors, are right about the advantages to avoid making the worst prediction in a field of predictors.
Rationality prevents you from thinking a Soviet invasion of Poland followed by a break in US-Soviet relations is more likely than a break in US-Soviet relations. It doesn’t help much in estimating either.
Overestimate the advantages to making the best prediction in a field of predictors, are right about the advantages to avoid making the worst prediction in a field of predictors.
I don’t understand what you mean. Can you expand?
Rationality prevents you from thinking a Soviet invasion of Poland followed by a break in US-Soviet relations is more likely than a break in US-Soviet relations. It doesn’t help much in estimating either.