The system collapse theory of Bronze Age Collapse is nuanced, complex, sophisticated and most likely wrong.
As a general rule, historians love explanations that emphasize ‘complexity’ and ‘nuance’. Be very wary of these explanations. They sound great as a verbal explanation but they are highly flexible hypotheses that are difficult to falsify and can easily explain any amount of data. The perfect fit for verbal bullshitters—which probably accurately describes the vast majority of non-quantitative social theorists -like historians.
A little experience with dynamical systems will show how problematic these models are. Be wary anytime somebody is talking about ‘multicausal’ explanations. There are typically two regimes: something is made out of many many independent factors, giving Gaussian distributions or there is one or two dominant eigenfactors that explain the vast majority of the variance. I could say more about this.
The most likely explanation for Bronze Age collapse is changes in warfare: elite corps of chariot archers losing out to javelin -throwing massed infantry consisting of a melange of experienced mercenaries. Earlier infantry-based tactics were ineffective against the sophisticated hit-and-run tactics of corps of chariot archers but eventually new tactics were devised—like using javileneers to hit the horses and wheels of chariots.
Writing and much of the archeological finds of this period rely on a demand for luxury- trade and elite scribes. Once the chariot-archer elites disappeared so did their luxury trade and elite scribes; hence a ‘collapse’.
I still think that a good modification to the progress equation would be to lose progress if population dips below some number, and, that this predicts that severe population crashes will be amplified even further as progress is lost.
Or, in less formal terms: I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.
So I believe in the gears of the theory I was referring to, even if it’s not the “primary cause”?
I have a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction to ‘complex, nuanced, multicausal’ explanations by historians in general and the Late Bronze Age collapse specifically. On a reread my reaction was perhaps a little overzealous.
The system collapse theory, due to Joseph Tainter(?), is not crazy. It does suffer from being overly flexible, hard to test etc.
I agree that “I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.”
The following is also plausible
″ a good modification to the progress equation would be to lose progress if population dips below some number”
Something like this is often argued to have happened with Tasman island, with Tasmanians losing basic technology like fishing, firemaking, and generally being less technologically sophisticated than their ancestors 8000 years before. However, last time I actually checked the details; Tasmanians losing firemaking at least seemed to be a myth.
Two undeniable historical cases of losses of technological ability are the late Western Roman Empire and the end of the Hellenistic Age. This is probably not tied to large changes in population size. Knowledge being lost quickly in times of chaos is not implausible, e.g. the siege of Syracuse or the Crisis of the Third Century. Many theories about these historical epochs are possible and contested.
EDIT: another case of a large loss of knowledge is the Sacking of Baghdad (1258) by the Mongols. It does fit in “I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.” On the other hand, is no need for an overtly complex theory. Horse-archer based steppe peoples burning down settled-down societies is a repeating theme in history.
EDIT2: I looked into Joseph Tainter’s theory of system collapse. He looks at three cases: Chaco collapse, Maya collapse, fall of Rome. From my reading of the literature there is fairly good evidence for a drought explanation for the Maya collapse—actually there are multiple Mayan collapses, drought based stories are apparently plausible for all three of them, but I am not an expert. My impression was that most experts in the Chaco favor enviromental causes as well—I don’t know enough to have a strong opinion.
The fall of Rome is of course hotly contested, so I won’t go into it. Suffice to say there are many possibilities here. A strong contender is probably Peter Turchin’s Assabiyah theory.
Dear Abram,
The system collapse theory of Bronze Age Collapse is nuanced, complex, sophisticated and most likely wrong.
As a general rule, historians love explanations that emphasize ‘complexity’ and ‘nuance’. Be very wary of these explanations. They sound great as a verbal explanation but they are highly flexible hypotheses that are difficult to falsify and can easily explain any amount of data. The perfect fit for verbal bullshitters—which probably accurately describes the vast majority of non-quantitative social theorists -like historians.
A little experience with dynamical systems will show how problematic these models are. Be wary anytime somebody is talking about ‘multicausal’ explanations. There are typically two regimes: something is made out of many many independent factors, giving Gaussian distributions or there is one or two dominant eigenfactors that explain the vast majority of the variance. I could say more about this.
The most likely explanation for Bronze Age collapse is changes in warfare: elite corps of chariot archers losing out to javelin -throwing massed infantry consisting of a melange of experienced mercenaries. Earlier infantry-based tactics were ineffective against the sophisticated hit-and-run tactics of corps of chariot archers but eventually new tactics were devised—like using javileneers to hit the horses and wheels of chariots.
Writing and much of the archeological finds of this period rely on a demand for luxury- trade and elite scribes. Once the chariot-archer elites disappeared so did their luxury trade and elite scribes; hence a ‘collapse’.
Much more can be found in Drews’ excellent book “The End of the Bronze Age: Changes in Warfare and the Catastrophe ca. 1200 B.C.”
Thanks, very interesting!
I still think that a good modification to the progress equation would be to lose progress if population dips below some number, and, that this predicts that severe population crashes will be amplified even further as progress is lost.
Or, in less formal terms: I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.
So I believe in the gears of the theory I was referring to, even if it’s not the “primary cause”?
Dear Abram,
I have a little bit of a knee-jerk reaction to ‘complex, nuanced, multicausal’ explanations by historians in general and the Late Bronze Age collapse specifically. On a reread my reaction was perhaps a little overzealous.
The system collapse theory, due to Joseph Tainter(?), is not crazy. It does suffer from being overly flexible, hard to test etc.
I agree that “I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.”
The following is also plausible
″ a good modification to the progress equation would be to lose progress if population dips below some number”
Something like this is often argued to have happened with Tasman island, with Tasmanians losing basic technology like fishing, firemaking, and generally being less technologically sophisticated than their ancestors 8000 years before. However, last time I actually checked the details; Tasmanians losing firemaking at least seemed to be a myth.
Two undeniable historical cases of losses of technological ability are the late Western Roman Empire and the end of the Hellenistic Age. This is probably not tied to large changes in population size. Knowledge being lost quickly in times of chaos is not implausible, e.g. the siege of Syracuse or the Crisis of the Third Century. Many theories about these historical epochs are possible and contested.
EDIT: another case of a large loss of knowledge is the Sacking of Baghdad (1258) by the Mongols. It does fit in “I still think knowledge can be lost quickly in times of chaos, particularly when population takes a nose-dive.” On the other hand, is no need for an overtly complex theory. Horse-archer based steppe peoples burning down settled-down societies is a repeating theme in history.
EDIT2: I looked into Joseph Tainter’s theory of system collapse. He looks at three cases: Chaco collapse, Maya collapse, fall of Rome. From my reading of the literature there is fairly good evidence for a drought explanation for the Maya collapse—actually there are multiple Mayan collapses, drought based stories are apparently plausible for all three of them, but I am not an expert. My impression was that most experts in the Chaco favor enviromental causes as well—I don’t know enough to have a strong opinion.
The fall of Rome is of course hotly contested, so I won’t go into it. Suffice to say there are many possibilities here. A strong contender is probably Peter Turchin’s Assabiyah theory.