This gets a little clearer if you don’t try to switch perspectives to some sort of objective viewpoint which somehow encompasses multiple universes. Probability is a function of prediction and modeling, not a feature of the experienced or measured universe. In the past, there is only 1 or 0 - a thing happened or it didn’t. In the future, you could model it as fully uncertain and unknowable, or just unknown to an agent, but either way probability is about an agent’s prediction.
“The probability that you exist” is 1, for you. It’s perhaps less than 1 for those who aren’t currently observing you. The probability that you WILL exist, even for you, is less than 1.
In terms of inductive logic, reasoning from a single instance (one chainsaw juggler) is suspect even without the anthropic questions.
This gets a little clearer if you don’t try to switch perspectives to some sort of objective viewpoint which somehow encompasses multiple universes. Probability is a function of prediction and modeling, not a feature of the experienced or measured universe. In the past, there is only 1 or 0 - a thing happened or it didn’t. In the future, you could model it as fully uncertain and unknowable, or just unknown to an agent, but either way probability is about an agent’s prediction.
“The probability that you exist” is 1, for you. It’s perhaps less than 1 for those who aren’t currently observing you. The probability that you WILL exist, even for you, is less than 1.
In terms of inductive logic, reasoning from a single instance (one chainsaw juggler) is suspect even without the anthropic questions.