Things can have minimum sizes and maximum sizes. You would for example think that adding hydrogen to a celestial body should make it glow brighter and this long remains true. However after some point you have a black hole in your hands which is very dim.
Prediction markets might be remarkably scalable but I think they also might have maximum limits even if they are not currently relevant or obvious. After some point instead of getting the prediction right its more economical to try to bait everyone else to guess wrong. For example if you had a mass media channel that broadcasted to 3 star systems full of colonized planets saying anything that would push anyone in the wrong direction might be a way to make money. In more tame analogy sending “nigerian prince” letters is remarkably economical with email even if single participants are unlikely to react to them in any way.
In order for a prediction market to work you can not have “epistemological market power” whatever you communicate to other participants can’t be a large fraction how they spend money. In the limit of trying to grasp into tiniest information scraps there migth become a signifcant population of “sheep” that are economically suggestible even if they themselfs think they are sharks. Even with a big market you are only one brain with no better processing power but your words have better surface area to suggest others making figure it out/fabricate social reality ratio different.
Things can have minimum sizes and maximum sizes. You would for example think that adding hydrogen to a celestial body should make it glow brighter and this long remains true. However after some point you have a black hole in your hands which is very dim.
Prediction markets might be remarkably scalable but I think they also might have maximum limits even if they are not currently relevant or obvious. After some point instead of getting the prediction right its more economical to try to bait everyone else to guess wrong. For example if you had a mass media channel that broadcasted to 3 star systems full of colonized planets saying anything that would push anyone in the wrong direction might be a way to make money. In more tame analogy sending “nigerian prince” letters is remarkably economical with email even if single participants are unlikely to react to them in any way.
In order for a prediction market to work you can not have “epistemological market power” whatever you communicate to other participants can’t be a large fraction how they spend money. In the limit of trying to grasp into tiniest information scraps there migth become a signifcant population of “sheep” that are economically suggestible even if they themselfs think they are sharks. Even with a big market you are only one brain with no better processing power but your words have better surface area to suggest others making figure it out/fabricate social reality ratio different.