I think that for the purposes of establishing a prior distribution of expectation, “playing poker with Warren Buffett” should be in a really different reference class than e.g. “playing poker with my buddies on Thursday.” So in your example, I don’t think that playing for a billion would actually be so many standard deviations out as to make it less positive than playing for a hundred.
I think that for the purposes of establishing a prior distribution of expectation, “playing poker with Warren Buffett” should be in a really different reference class than e.g. “playing poker with my buddies on Thursday.” So in your example, I don’t think that playing for a billion would actually be so many standard deviations out as to make it less positive than playing for a hundred.