There seems to be nothing in EEV that penalizes relative ignorance or relatively poorly grounded estimates, or rewards investigation and the forming of particularly well grounded estimates. If I can literally save a child I see drowning by ruining a $1000 suit, but in the same moment I make a wild guess that this $1000 could save 2 lives if put toward medical research, EEV seems to indicate that I should opt for the latter.
I don’t understand this objection. What sort of subjective probability are we meant to be ascribing to the ‘wild guess’? If less than 0.5, as would seem appropriate for a ‘wild guess’, then you still save the child. If greater than 0.5, it doesn’t seem to be a wild guess at all, but a firmly supported belief, and it’s entirely reasonable to donate to medical research.
I don’t understand this objection. What sort of subjective probability are we meant to be ascribing to the ‘wild guess’? If less than 0.5, as would seem appropriate for a ‘wild guess’, then you still save the child. If greater than 0.5, it doesn’t seem to be a wild guess at all, but a firmly supported belief, and it’s entirely reasonable to donate to medical research.