Given stories I’ve heard about cryonics orgs, I’d put 10-50% on 5. Given my impression of neuroscience, I’d put 4 at 25-75%.
Given that I’m more pessimistic in general, I’d put an addition 2x penalty on my skepticism of their other guesses.
That puts me around 0.01%-20% spread, or one in ten thousand lower bound, which is better than I expected. If I was convinced that a cryo org was actually a responsible business that would be enough for me to try to make it happen.
Yes—it’s hard to perform the calculations and end up with a high probability that cryonics works.
I think cryonics overall is much less feasible than many Less Wrongers tend to assume. Overall, I think anti-aging has a much higher chance of working to keep us alive much longer than cryonics does.
Yeah I think my main disagreements are 4 and 5.
Given stories I’ve heard about cryonics orgs, I’d put 10-50% on 5. Given my impression of neuroscience, I’d put 4 at 25-75%.
Given that I’m more pessimistic in general, I’d put an addition 2x penalty on my skepticism of their other guesses.
That puts me around 0.01%-20% spread, or one in ten thousand lower bound, which is better than I expected. If I was convinced that a cryo org was actually a responsible business that would be enough for me to try to make it happen.
Yes—it’s hard to perform the calculations and end up with a high probability that cryonics works.
I think cryonics overall is much less feasible than many Less Wrongers tend to assume. Overall, I think anti-aging has a much higher chance of working to keep us alive much longer than cryonics does.