After reading the The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant a few years ago after my father died, I went into a deep dive on this and ended up making a calculator, comparing the impact of eliminating various causes of death on average / median lifespan. It’s very simplistic, but I found it interesting to use to illustrate how ageing contributes to death:
Very interesting. Assuming we eliminated everything but accidental causes looks like we should live to about 120+ years. I think Sinclair had said that was the expected lifespan as well.
Taking the tool at face value, it seem that both personally and socially effort focused on circulatory diseases should give the biggest bang for the buck. Then again I didn’t run through different cases of combination so...
If the actuarial statistics I’ve read are accurate, about 1 in 1000 18 year old men in the US die before their 19th birthday. If the chance of dying each year stayed perfectly flat, life expectancy would be about 1000 years...
True, circulatory diseases would be a big win, but do you think the marginal buck there is likely to do as much as a marginal buck focused on aging giving the amount of funding allocated to each? If we add the R&D budgets focused on circulatory diseases to the treatment cost of circulatory diseases (potential profit pool for pharma companies), my intuition says that the number would be ~20-100x the total amount of funding to aging-stopping or -reversing technology. What do you think the ratio would be?
Definitely a bug! It was my first and only foray into D3.js so there are a lot of bad states you can get into fairly easily. Might rebuild it in something else one day.
I think it would be worth rebuilding if you have time. If you do, make sure to share it on Longevity Subreddit. You will get a lot of interest in it there.
Love this article.
After reading the The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant a few years ago after my father died, I went into a deep dive on this and ended up making a calculator, comparing the impact of eliminating various causes of death on average / median lifespan. It’s very simplistic, but I found it interesting to use to illustrate how ageing contributes to death:
http://life.analogmantra.com/
Very interesting. Assuming we eliminated everything but accidental causes looks like we should live to about 120+ years. I think Sinclair had said that was the expected lifespan as well.
Taking the tool at face value, it seem that both personally and socially effort focused on circulatory diseases should give the biggest bang for the buck. Then again I didn’t run through different cases of combination so...
If the actuarial statistics I’ve read are accurate, about 1 in 1000 18 year old men in the US die before their 19th birthday. If the chance of dying each year stayed perfectly flat, life expectancy would be about 1000 years...
Some have calculated lifespan would be 2800-8900 years on average without aging.
https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-riskhttps://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3044194/whats-the-average-life-expectancy-if-only-dying-from-accidents
True, circulatory diseases would be a big win, but do you think the marginal buck there is likely to do as much as a marginal buck focused on aging giving the amount of funding allocated to each? If we add the R&D budgets focused on circulatory diseases to the treatment cost of circulatory diseases (potential profit pool for pharma companies), my intuition says that the number would be ~20-100x the total amount of funding to aging-stopping or -reversing technology. What do you think the ratio would be?
Really love the app, great work!
Just a bug I found (I think it’s a bug?) - if I untick all the boxes, the median age of death goes to 0.
Definitely a bug! It was my first and only foray into D3.js so there are a lot of bad states you can get into fairly easily. Might rebuild it in something else one day.
I think it would be worth rebuilding if you have time. If you do, make sure to share it on Longevity Subreddit. You will get a lot of interest in it there.