I’d also highlight that we have fine-grained empirical data about clinical trial success rates, though not for geroscience-based therapies. The overall success rate for a therapeutic can range from 3.4% (cancer drugs) to 33.4% (vaccines), with an average including oncology of 13.8% and an average excluding oncology of 20.9%. Some of the most promising drug candidates, like rapamycin, have already passed clinical trials for other indications, so we know they’re safe. The work now is to show they can be safe enough at lower doses to justify giving them to healthy people.
I’d also highlight that we have fine-grained empirical data about clinical trial success rates, though not for geroscience-based therapies. The overall success rate for a therapeutic can range from 3.4% (cancer drugs) to 33.4% (vaccines), with an average including oncology of 13.8% and an average excluding oncology of 20.9%. Some of the most promising drug candidates, like rapamycin, have already passed clinical trials for other indications, so we know they’re safe. The work now is to show they can be safe enough at lower doses to justify giving them to healthy people.