Why wouldn’t billionaires (outside of Thiel and Greeves) that donate money for improving health outcomes want to fund long-term/difficult/high-risk high-reward projects?
Do you know whether SENS request a grant from OpenPhil?
Yes, and there are some signs that more billionaires (at least, the progressive-minded ones) are taking this seriously. For example, Elon Musk in an interview 3 weeks ago (timestamp: 24:03) mentioned the feasibility of ‘stop[ping] aging’ when asked about the biggest threats to the future of humanity, for the first time on the public record.
Our program officer Nick Beckstead offers the following forecast to make the above more precise/accountable: By January 1, 2067, there will be no collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions). (Subjective probability: ≥93%)
However, I would strongly disagree with this timeline, based on my knowledge of the field, today. I would go so far as to say that some combination of therapies available today—including metformin, senolytics, blood plasma exchange and epigenetic reprogramming—could already extend lifespan 25 years (compared to not taking the therapies) if personalised and multi-omics-biomarker-optimised. It’s just that we need more research to know how, when, where and how much of these therapies are required for each individual. With another 46 years of research in a field that is already expanding, I have no doubt that 25-year lifespan extension will be available by 2067.
They also made a big mistake, in my opinion, by overevaluating the amount of funding that geroscience (i.e. research that is relevant to the development of anti-aging therapies) receives:
The NIH reports spending $2.7 billion per year on aging research in 2015.16 In the 2015 budget request, $510 million per year is tagged as “neuroscience” and $177 million per year is tagged as “aging biology.”17 We have heard in various conversations that this research is mainly relevant to addressing particular symptoms associated with widely-recognized diseases (e.g., Alzheimer’s disease), rather than on understanding the basic mechanisms that cause aging. This is plausible to us, but we haven’t seen any convincing evidence for it and we do not take it for granted.
It is clear to almost everyone working in the field that the amount of funding going towards geroscience—i.e. targeting aging therapeutically—is drastically lower than that of age-related diseases—which employ completely different research methods and experimental protocols (i.e. do not perform lifespan studies with geroprotective interventions prior to disease onset). A list of most of the researchers working in the field is here (last updated April 2020) though I don’t think OpenPhil cared to look deeply enough into the field to recognise the lack of researchers and funding for geoscience in particular.
There are other flaws in their analysis. For example, they mentioned the large funding that Google-backed Calico receives, here:
Some aging-focused companies working in this area that we became aware of in the course of this investigation include Calico ($500 million in disclosed investment and agreed upon potential for $1B more);24
However, as Aubrey de Grey explains in this interview, Calico—despite having a huge budget—have a poor organisational structure that has so far precluded any meaningful research advances in the field.
As Aubrey de Grey puts it in the interview (from ~1:14:00 onwards):
They [Calico] have created a vast valley of death internally....they’ve got this paradise of research where they’ve hired fanastically good researchers in large numbers paid large salaries to find stuff out; to increase our understanding of what aging is. And on the other end they’ve got these people who know all these people who know all about how to turn proof of concept into a product—and they’ve got zero in the middle. They’ve got nothing that turns knowledge into proof of concept.
So overall, I believe OpenPhil are inaccurate in their assessment of the geroscience field based on their ‘medium’ depth investigation into it. There are numerous other examples of statements in their write-up that demonstrate a poor or incomplete knowledge of the state of the field—both scientifically and economically. I can go into these if you like, and I’ll probably write up a post about this in the future.
Youtube allows you to link to specific timestamps when you click on the share button.
Yes, and there are some signs that more billionaires (at least, the progressive-minded ones) are taking this seriously.
I think there are two separate issues. One is about aging being taking seriously and the other is about SENS being taken seriously.
However, as Aubrey de Grey explains in this interview, Calico—despite having a huge budget—have a poor organisational structure that has so far precluded any meaningful research advances in the field.
I think you have the wrong link. In any case Aubrey de Grey basically here that hiring credentialed people is not enough to get results but that if he would organize the research it would produce better results. While that might be true it’s hard to assess.
I would go so far as to say that some combination of therapies available today—including metformin, senolytics, blood plasma exchange and epigenetic reprogramming—could already extend lifespan 25 years (compared to not taking the therapies) if personalised and multi-omics-biomarker-optimised.
That sounds like the people in the 1970s that they thought they could cure cancer by the end of the decade if they declare war on it.
Youtube allows you to link to specific timestamps when you click on the share button.
Thanks for the tip.
I think you have the wrong link. In any case Aubrey de Grey basically here that hiring credentialed people is not enough to get results but that if he would organize the research it would produce better results. While that might be true it’s hard to assess.
Sorry, here is the link. It’s not that hard to assess, given he has many informal chats with people affiliated with Calico. His point is that Calico has a huge budget but terrible internal structure that has essentially created an internal valley of death—many good aging researchers on good salaries, and many good pharma guys, but no-one who is actually developing and translating the technologies to solve aging (i.e. by repairing the hallmarks of aging).
That sounds like the people in the 1970s that they thought they could cure cancer by the end of the decade if they declare war on it.
It’s not an apt comparison for at two reasons:
Scientists were nowhere near understanding cancer in mice let alone curing it in 1970. By contrast, with anti-aging technologies such as senolytics we can already delay cancer (which kills 80% of mice typically) and extend healthy lifespan 30%.
Solving cancer is a potentially harder than slowing aging, since it involves intervening in the process further downstream i.e. when more damage has accumulated, rather than nipping it in the bud.
Why wouldn’t billionaires (outside of Thiel and Greeves) that donate money for improving health outcomes want to fund long-term/difficult/high-risk high-reward projects?
Do you know whether SENS request a grant from OpenPhil?
Yes, and there are some signs that more billionaires (at least, the progressive-minded ones) are taking this seriously. For example, Elon Musk in an interview 3 weeks ago (timestamp: 24:03) mentioned the feasibility of ‘stop[ping] aging’ when asked about the biggest threats to the future of humanity, for the first time on the public record.
Two scientific advisors from OpenPhil conducted a ‘medium’ depth investigation into anti-aging in 2017 and seemed to understand the problem, though were less optimistic about anti-aging timelines, and funding this research area. They made the following forecast:
However, I would strongly disagree with this timeline, based on my knowledge of the field, today. I would go so far as to say that some combination of therapies available today—including metformin, senolytics, blood plasma exchange and epigenetic reprogramming—could already extend lifespan 25 years (compared to not taking the therapies) if personalised and multi-omics-biomarker-optimised. It’s just that we need more research to know how, when, where and how much of these therapies are required for each individual. With another 46 years of research in a field that is already expanding, I have no doubt that 25-year lifespan extension will be available by 2067.
They also summarised what a few of the anti-aging approaches (senolytics, stem cell therapies) but neglected many of the most promising approaches such as plasma exchange, partial epigenetic reprogramming, and mTOR inhibition.
They also made a big mistake, in my opinion, by overevaluating the amount of funding that geroscience (i.e. research that is relevant to the development of anti-aging therapies) receives:
It is clear to almost everyone working in the field that the amount of funding going towards geroscience—i.e. targeting aging therapeutically—is drastically lower than that of age-related diseases—which employ completely different research methods and experimental protocols (i.e. do not perform lifespan studies with geroprotective interventions prior to disease onset). A list of most of the researchers working in the field is here (last updated April 2020) though I don’t think OpenPhil cared to look deeply enough into the field to recognise the lack of researchers and funding for geoscience in particular.
There are other flaws in their analysis. For example, they mentioned the large funding that Google-backed Calico receives, here:
However, as Aubrey de Grey explains in this interview, Calico—despite having a huge budget—have a poor organisational structure that has so far precluded any meaningful research advances in the field.
As Aubrey de Grey puts it in the interview (from ~1:14:00 onwards):
So overall, I believe OpenPhil are inaccurate in their assessment of the geroscience field based on their ‘medium’ depth investigation into it. There are numerous other examples of statements in their write-up that demonstrate a poor or incomplete knowledge of the state of the field—both scientifically and economically. I can go into these if you like, and I’ll probably write up a post about this in the future.
Youtube allows you to link to specific timestamps when you click on the share button.
I think there are two separate issues. One is about aging being taking seriously and the other is about SENS being taken seriously.
I think you have the wrong link. In any case Aubrey de Grey basically here that hiring credentialed people is not enough to get results but that if he would organize the research it would produce better results. While that might be true it’s hard to assess.
That sounds like the people in the 1970s that they thought they could cure cancer by the end of the decade if they declare war on it.
Thanks for the tip.
Sorry, here is the link. It’s not that hard to assess, given he has many informal chats with people affiliated with Calico. His point is that Calico has a huge budget but terrible internal structure that has essentially created an internal valley of death—many good aging researchers on good salaries, and many good pharma guys, but no-one who is actually developing and translating the technologies to solve aging (i.e. by repairing the hallmarks of aging).
It’s not an apt comparison for at two reasons:
Scientists were nowhere near understanding cancer in mice let alone curing it in 1970. By contrast, with anti-aging technologies such as senolytics we can already delay cancer (which kills 80% of mice typically) and extend healthy lifespan 30%.
Solving cancer is a potentially harder than slowing aging, since it involves intervening in the process further downstream i.e. when more damage has accumulated, rather than nipping it in the bud.
I dont’t know actually (for both questions). And I’m not sure how many billionaires like this there are.