The probability of dying of aging is 100%. The probability of dying of AGI is less than 100%. The probability of the development of anti-aging tech via non-AGI means is close to 100% (e.g., senolytics). The probability of the development of anti-aging tech via AGI is not close to 100%. Therefore, some of us prefer to focus more on aging than AGI.
Sure, I could have added the caveat “if you don’t die of anything else first (and most people won’t),” but I wanted to keep the caveats to a minimum. Perhaps a general caveat would be that these statements should be understood to apply to most people alive today. About two thirds of deaths are caused by aging (100k out of 150k per day) and in the developed world, it’s 90%.
The probability of dying of aging is 100%.
The probability of dying of AGI is less than 100%.
The probability of the development of anti-aging tech via non-AGI means is close to 100% (e.g., senolytics).
The probability of the development of anti-aging tech via AGI is not close to 100%.
Therefore, some of us prefer to focus more on aging than AGI.
Surely if I die of something other than aging, I don’t die of aging?
Sure, I could have added the caveat “if you don’t die of anything else first (and most people won’t),” but I wanted to keep the caveats to a minimum. Perhaps a general caveat would be that these statements should be understood to apply to most people alive today. About two thirds of deaths are caused by aging (100k out of 150k per day) and in the developed world, it’s 90%.