Ideally, your current probability should include the probabilility-weighted average of all possible future evidence. This is required for consistency of probability across those evidence-producing timelines. Collectively, the set of probabilities of future experiences is your prior.
But this article isn’t talking about belief or decision-making, it’s talking about communication (and perhaps encoding in a limited storage mechanism like a brain). You really don’t have the power to do that calculation well, nor to communicate in this level of detail. The idea of a probability range or probability curve is one reasonable (IMO) way to summarize a large set of partly-correlated future evidence.
Ideally, your current probability should include the probabilility-weighted average of all possible future evidence. This is required for consistency of probability across those evidence-producing timelines. Collectively, the set of probabilities of future experiences is your prior.
But this article isn’t talking about belief or decision-making, it’s talking about communication (and perhaps encoding in a limited storage mechanism like a brain). You really don’t have the power to do that calculation well, nor to communicate in this level of detail. The idea of a probability range or probability curve is one reasonable (IMO) way to summarize a large set of partly-correlated future evidence.