I wrote the entry in the context of the question “how can I gain the effectiveness-benefits of confidence and extreme ambition, without distorting my world-model/expectations?”
I had recently been discovering abstract arguments that seemed to strongly suggest it would be most altruistic/effective for me to pursue extremely ambitious projects; both because 1) the low-likelihood high-payoff quadrant had highest expected utility, but also because 2) the likelihood of success for extremely ambitious projects seemed higher than I thought. (Plus some other reasons.) I figured that I needn’t feel confident about success in order to feel confident about the approach.
I wrote the entry in the context of the question “how can I gain the effectiveness-benefits of confidence and extreme ambition, without distorting my world-model/expectations?”
I had recently been discovering abstract arguments that seemed to strongly suggest it would be most altruistic/effective for me to pursue extremely ambitious projects; both because 1) the low-likelihood high-payoff quadrant had highest expected utility, but also because 2) the likelihood of success for extremely ambitious projects seemed higher than I thought. (Plus some other reasons.) I figured that I needn’t feel confident about success in order to feel confident about the approach.