If instead you give me that money for only three years, then I am slightly less than $36k richer. Which is nice, but impacts my long term prospects much less. It is still a good test of the ‘give people money’ hypothesis but less good at testing UBI.
100% this. If you give me money for three years, it probably means one of the following:
I will keep my current job, and either spend more, or save the extra money.
I will take a break, and after the three years, I will be looking for a job again. (I will probably start interviewing after 2 1⁄2 years, to get the job before the money runs out.) I will be well rested, and maybe I will learn some cool things in the meanwhile, so possibly I could apply for a different kind of a job. On the other hand, I will also be three years older, and my CV will look suspicious (even more so if the employers know there was an “UBI” experiment in the neighborhood).
I have exactly three years to start a successful business. I only get one chance (unless I give up quickly and immediately try something different).
Depending on my situation, any of these may be great. Maybe I already wanted to start a business, even had specific plans, but I wasn’t sure how to pay my bills before it gets off the ground… and now I have a solution! Or maybe I had an abusive job that left me broken, so I can take a break and become a healthy person again. Or maybe my job was okay but it took all the time and energy I needed for something else, so I can use the break to do that other thing (like find a partner, or build a house). Spending more seems stupid… unless I am poor and there are things I definitely need but I couldn’t afford them until now (e.g. to fix my health). If I know how to save and invest the money well, it may contribute to my earlier retirement in future, which would be the true UBI.
While these are all great things and I would be helpful for them, this is what true UBI would be like:
I could try starting a business… and if I failed, try again… and again… and again… Many successful entrepreneurs did not succeed at their first attempt, but most people can’t afford to make multiple attempts. Now they could.
I would know that I will never need to stay in an abusive job.
I could adjust my work/life balance however I need, whenever I need. No more worries about parental leave, or whether I could afford to homeschool my kids, etc. Most likely, I would have more kids, they would be homeschooled or partially homeschooled, and if I can trust Bryan Caplan, they would probably turn out well.
The very concept of “saving for retirement” would become obsolete. As I would get old, I would gradually adjust my work to my then capacities, probably without any clear line.
100% this. If you give me money for three years, it probably means one of the following:
I will keep my current job, and either spend more, or save the extra money.
I will take a break, and after the three years, I will be looking for a job again. (I will probably start interviewing after 2 1⁄2 years, to get the job before the money runs out.) I will be well rested, and maybe I will learn some cool things in the meanwhile, so possibly I could apply for a different kind of a job. On the other hand, I will also be three years older, and my CV will look suspicious (even more so if the employers know there was an “UBI” experiment in the neighborhood).
I have exactly three years to start a successful business. I only get one chance (unless I give up quickly and immediately try something different).
Depending on my situation, any of these may be great. Maybe I already wanted to start a business, even had specific plans, but I wasn’t sure how to pay my bills before it gets off the ground… and now I have a solution! Or maybe I had an abusive job that left me broken, so I can take a break and become a healthy person again. Or maybe my job was okay but it took all the time and energy I needed for something else, so I can use the break to do that other thing (like find a partner, or build a house). Spending more seems stupid… unless I am poor and there are things I definitely need but I couldn’t afford them until now (e.g. to fix my health). If I know how to save and invest the money well, it may contribute to my earlier retirement in future, which would be the true UBI.
While these are all great things and I would be helpful for them, this is what true UBI would be like:
I could try starting a business… and if I failed, try again… and again… and again… Many successful entrepreneurs did not succeed at their first attempt, but most people can’t afford to make multiple attempts. Now they could.
I would know that I will never need to stay in an abusive job.
I could adjust my work/life balance however I need, whenever I need. No more worries about parental leave, or whether I could afford to homeschool my kids, etc. Most likely, I would have more kids, they would be homeschooled or partially homeschooled, and if I can trust Bryan Caplan, they would probably turn out well.
The very concept of “saving for retirement” would become obsolete. As I would get old, I would gradually adjust my work to my then capacities, probably without any clear line.