This is like saying engineering disproportionately channels optimism, because almost all the appliances you buy in the store work now and only fail later. If they had failed immediately, they would have been flagged in QC and never got to the shop.
The difference is, if they fail, you can always buy a new appliance. You can’t buy a new body.
The difference is, if they fail, you can always buy a new appliance.
For some underwhelming value of “always”, and anyway appliances aren’t all that engineering makes.
Off the top of my head, cases when “harms take longer to show up & disprove than benefits” outside medicine included leaded gasoline, chlorofluorocarbons, asbestos, cheap O-rings in space shuttles, the 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the use of two-digit year numbers...
Yes. My point was that disproportionate channeling of optimism isn’t something specific to medicine (let alone to evidence-based medicine).
EDIT: Hmm, I guess I originally took “disproportionally” to mean “compared to how much other things channel optimism” whereas it’d make more sense to interpret it as “compared to how much medicine channels pessimism”.
Yes, it’s still a bias.
The difference is, if they fail, you can always buy a new appliance. You can’t buy a new body.
For some underwhelming value of “always”, and anyway appliances aren’t all that engineering makes.
Off the top of my head, cases when “harms take longer to show up & disprove than benefits” outside medicine included leaded gasoline, chlorofluorocarbons, asbestos, cheap O-rings in space shuttles, the 1940 Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the use of two-digit year numbers...
Look at Feynman’s analysis. I’d say this is a good example of disproportionate channeling of optimism.
Yes. My point was that disproportionate channeling of optimism isn’t something specific to medicine (let alone to evidence-based medicine).
EDIT: Hmm, I guess I originally took “disproportionally” to mean “compared to how much other things channel optimism” whereas it’d make more sense to interpret it as “compared to how much medicine channels pessimism”.