Overall, I think that the new Stargate numbers published may (call it 40%) be true, but I also think there is a decent chance this is new administration trump-esque propoganda/bluster (call it 45%),
I think it’s definitely bluster, the question is how much of a done deal it is to turn this bluster into at least $100 billion.
I don’t this this changes the prior expected path of datacenter investment at all. It’s precisely how the expected path was going to look like, the only change is how relatively high-profile/flashy this is being. (Like, if they invest $30-100 billion into the next generation of pretrained models in 2025-2026, and that generation fails, they ain’t seeing the remaining $400 billion no matter what they’re promising now. Next generation makes or breaks the investment into the subsequent one, just as was expected before this.)
He does very explicitly say “I am going to spend 80 billion dollars building Azure”. Which I think has nothing to do with Stargate.
(I think the overall vibe he gives off is “I don’t care about this Stargate thing, I’m going to scale my data centers and that’s that”. I don’t put much stock into this vibe, but it does fit with OpenAI/Microsoft being on the outs.)
I think it’s definitely bluster, the question is how much of a done deal it is to turn this bluster into at least $100 billion.
I don’t this this changes the prior expected path of datacenter investment at all. It’s precisely how the expected path was going to look like, the only change is how relatively high-profile/flashy this is being. (Like, if they invest $30-100 billion into the next generation of pretrained models in 2025-2026, and that generation fails, they ain’t seeing the remaining $400 billion no matter what they’re promising now. Next generation makes or breaks the investment into the subsequent one, just as was expected before this.)
He does very explicitly say “I am going to spend 80 billion dollars building Azure”. Which I think has nothing to do with Stargate.
(I think the overall vibe he gives off is “I don’t care about this Stargate thing, I’m going to scale my data centers and that’s that”. I don’t put much stock into this vibe, but it does fit with OpenAI/Microsoft being on the outs.)