Thanks, I found this interesting! I remember reading that piece by Froolow but I didn’t realize the refactoring was such a big part of it (and that the GiveWell CEA was formatted in such a dense way, wow).
This resonates a lot with my experience auditing sprawling, messy Excel models back in my last job (my god are there so many shitty Excel models in the world writ large).
FWIW if I were building a model this complex, I’d personally pop it into Squiggle / Squigglehub — if only because at that point, properly multiplying probabilities together and keeping track of my confidence interval starts to really matter to me :)
Thanks, I found this interesting! I remember reading that piece by Froolow but I didn’t realize the refactoring was such a big part of it (and that the GiveWell CEA was formatted in such a dense way, wow).
This resonates a lot with my experience auditing sprawling, messy Excel models back in my last job (my god are there so many shitty Excel models in the world writ large).
FWIW if I were building a model this complex, I’d personally pop it into Squiggle / Squigglehub — if only because at that point, properly multiplying probabilities together and keeping track of my confidence interval starts to really matter to me :)