In a forecasting context, you could treat it as a kind of conservation of evidence: you are surprised, and would have been wrong, in the specific prediction of ‘Ivanka Trump will not tweet about short AI timelines’, but you would have been right, in a way which more than offsets your loss, for your implied broader prediction of ‘in the next few years, some highly influential “normie” politicians will suddenly start talking in very scale-pilled ways’.
(Assuming that’s what you meant. If you simply meant “some weird shit is gonna happen because it’s a big world and weird shit is always happening, and while I’m surprised this specific weird thing happened involving Ivanka, I’m no more surprised in general than usual”, then I agree with Jay that you are probably looking for Law of Large Numbers or maybe Littlewood’s Law.)
In a forecasting context, you could treat it as a kind of conservation of evidence: you are surprised, and would have been wrong, in the specific prediction of ‘Ivanka Trump will not tweet about short AI timelines’, but you would have been right, in a way which more than offsets your loss, for your implied broader prediction of ‘in the next few years, some highly influential “normie” politicians will suddenly start talking in very scale-pilled ways’.
(Assuming that’s what you meant. If you simply meant “some weird shit is gonna happen because it’s a big world and weird shit is always happening, and while I’m surprised this specific weird thing happened involving Ivanka, I’m no more surprised in general than usual”, then I agree with Jay that you are probably looking for Law of Large Numbers or maybe Littlewood’s Law.)