Another way of phrasing it: you don’t get the $100 marginal payoff if you’re not prepared to knowingly go to your death in the incredibly unlikely event of a particular type of misprediction.
That’s the sense in which I meant “you got screwed”. You entered the scenario knowing that it was incredibly unlikely that you would die regardless of what you decide, but were prepared to accept that incredibly microscopic chance of death in exchange for keeping your $100. The odds just went against you.
Edit: If Predictor’s actual bound on error rate was 10^-24, this would be valid. However, Predictor’s bound on error rate cannot be 10^-24 in all scenarios, so this is all irrelevant. What a waste of time.
Another way of phrasing it: you don’t get the $100 marginal payoff if you’renot preparedto knowingly go to your death in the incredibly unlikely event of a particular type of misprediction.That’s the sense in which I meant “you got screwed”. You entered the scenario knowing that it was incredibly unlikely that you would die regardless of what you decide, but wereprepared to acceptthat incredibly microscopic chance of death in exchange for keeping your $100. The odds just went against you.Edit: If Predictor’s actual bound on error rate was 10^-24, this would be valid. However, Predictor’s bound on error rate cannot be 10^-24 in all scenarios, so this is all irrelevant. What a waste of time.