If the note was not included in the simulation, then under FDT there is no subjunctive dependence: the output produced by the simulator is for different input than the ones you actually experienced. In the usual FDT analogy, the fact that both you and Predictor are almost certainly using the same type of calculator means nothing if you’re pressing different buttons. We’re told about Predictor’s simulation fidelity, but that doesn’t mean anything if the inputs to the simulation are not the same as reality.
You can work through FDT with the assumption that that a note is with probability p written after simulating you (with fidelity 1 − 10^-24) without a note, and it says that for all but microscopic p you should choose Right. This is a boring scenario and doesn’t illustrate any differences between decision theories, so I didn’t bother to expand on it.
Edit: The previous is all pointless due to misreading the statement about Predictor’s accuracy. FDT recommends taking the Right box in this scenario regardless of whether points 1 and 2 hold.
If the note was not included in the simulation, then under FDT there is no subjunctive dependence: the output produced by the simulator is fordifferent inputthan the ones you actually experienced. In the usual FDT analogy, the fact that both you and Predictor are almost certainly using the same type of calculator means nothing if you’re pressing different buttons. We’re told about Predictor’s simulation fidelity, but that doesn’t mean anything if the inputs to the simulation are not the same as reality.You can work through FDT with the assumption that that a note is with probabilitypwritten after simulating you (with fidelity 1 − 10^-24) without a note, and it says that for all but microscopicpyou should choose Right. This is a boring scenario and doesn’t illustrate any differences between decision theories, so I didn’t bother to expand on it.Edit: The previous is all pointless due to misreading the statement about Predictor’s accuracy. FDT recommends taking the Right box in this scenario regardless of whether points 1 and 2 hold.