All that matters is the probability that you can beat the status quo, whether through focused actions to help one person, or systematic changes.
This assumes that you’re perfect at figuring out the probability that you can beat the status quo. Human beings are pretty bad at this.
No, it doesn’t. If you’re uncertain about your own reasoning, discount the weight of your own evidence proportionally, and use the new value. In heuristic terms: err on the side of caution, by a lot if the price of failure is high.
This assumes that you’re perfect at figuring out the probability that you can beat the status quo. Human beings are pretty bad at this.
No, it doesn’t. If you’re uncertain about your own reasoning, discount the weight of your own evidence proportionally, and use the new value. In heuristic terms: err on the side of caution, by a lot if the price of failure is high.