Maybe not the right place, but my understanding is that Robert Gordon’s hypothesis is very different from the others.
The common view between these folks is that our expectation is for growth, and with this comes plans/strategies/policies which are breaking down as our growth has been slower than expected (at this point for decades).
(I think I know more about this one) Gordon’s view is that stagnation is because our growth has come from discovering, scaling, and rolling-out a sequence of “once only” inventions. We can only disseminate germ theory once, we can only add women to the workforce once, we can only widely deploy indoor plumbing once, etc. This means the expectation is that as we get all the easy improvements, growth will slow down. Gordon’s view is importantly independent of culture, and makes similar predictions of US, UK, JP, SK, CN, FR, DE, (which they’ll arrive at in different dates given the convergence model, but eventually all trend the same). Gordon’s prediction is that we’re just now in a world where we’re stuck at ~1% TFP growth.
(I know some about this) Cowen’s hypothesis in the Great Stagnation is similar to Gordon’s, but seems to argue that the stagnation he’s describing is 1) more specific to American culture 2) reversible, in that he predicts given some policy changes that we can get back to the higher growth of earlier decades. I don’t know how much Cowen’s thinking has changed since publishing that book.
(I know less about this) E.Weinstein’s hypothesis is there’s something in the cultural zeitgeist that is causing the stagnation. I am interested in learning more about this take, and would appreciate references.
Maybe not the right place, but my understanding is that Robert Gordon’s hypothesis is very different from the others.
The common view between these folks is that our expectation is for growth, and with this comes plans/strategies/policies which are breaking down as our growth has been slower than expected (at this point for decades).
(I think I know more about this one) Gordon’s view is that stagnation is because our growth has come from discovering, scaling, and rolling-out a sequence of “once only” inventions. We can only disseminate germ theory once, we can only add women to the workforce once, we can only widely deploy indoor plumbing once, etc. This means the expectation is that as we get all the easy improvements, growth will slow down. Gordon’s view is importantly independent of culture, and makes similar predictions of US, UK, JP, SK, CN, FR, DE, (which they’ll arrive at in different dates given the convergence model, but eventually all trend the same). Gordon’s prediction is that we’re just now in a world where we’re stuck at ~1% TFP growth.
(I know some about this) Cowen’s hypothesis in the Great Stagnation is similar to Gordon’s, but seems to argue that the stagnation he’s describing is 1) more specific to American culture 2) reversible, in that he predicts given some policy changes that we can get back to the higher growth of earlier decades. I don’t know how much Cowen’s thinking has changed since publishing that book.
(I know less about this) E.Weinstein’s hypothesis is there’s something in the cultural zeitgeist that is causing the stagnation. I am interested in learning more about this take, and would appreciate references.