Well, if the criteria for success is inventing cryptocurrency, I don’t predict that teaching rationality will have that effect on people. It’s a lot more small usefulness that compounds over time. So understanding Bayes makes it easier to assemble what you know coherently, learning to install habits helps you remember to use the skill when you’re most likely to need it… etc. That habit of reasoning might save you money, or social capital, or time. And, over the course of your life, it gives you more time and scope to act.
That’s pretty much what it does for me, so far, and it’s been a worthwhile level up. It did make a difference for me to learn and practice in a community (built in spaced repetition, yay!) rather than just reading. The reading helped, but once I have a tool, it takes practice to remember to use it, instead of my old default.
Well, if the criteria for success is inventing cryptocurrency, I don’t predict that teaching rationality will have that effect on people. It’s a lot more small usefulness that compounds over time. So understanding Bayes makes it easier to assemble what you know coherently, learning to install habits helps you remember to use the skill when you’re most likely to need it… etc. That habit of reasoning might save you money, or social capital, or time. And, over the course of your life, it gives you more time and scope to act.
That’s pretty much what it does for me, so far, and it’s been a worthwhile level up. It did make a difference for me to learn and practice in a community (built in spaced repetition, yay!) rather than just reading. The reading helped, but once I have a tool, it takes practice to remember to use it, instead of my old default.