We’re interested in impact in other contexts as well, but we know less about the subject. We’re interested in learning more.
I’d hesitate to call your estimate of the social value you’ll generate a lower bound, as you do, if you’re not sure about the value of the invisible/conventional work you might be persuading people away from. It seems like most of what you’re doing and planning should give a boost to any kind of achievement, but I get the sense that much of the Effective Altruist community underestimates the marginal impact of an exceptional person with a strategic mindset and altruistic leanings in a “conventional” career like engineering, management, engineering/management consulting, industrial or basic research, medicine (and likely law and others, though I have less of an idea there). (You don’t seem to rely on it, but I especially don’t think replaceability is the knockdown argument many people treat it as here.)
I’d hesitate to call your estimate of the social value you’ll generate a lower bound, as you do, if you’re not sure about the value of the invisible/conventional work you might be persuading people away from
For conventional careers, income is a proxy to social value of work, and this serves as a base-line. I think that most people with an innovative flair can do better than this. But there may be opportunities to systematically contribute outsized impact relative to earnings – I’d very much appreciate pointers to places where we can learn more about this subject.
We think that there are people who:
Could be using their spare time in much more impactful ways (e.g. writing for the public rather than just for a few friends)
End up in average paying corporate and academic jobs that don’t have an outsized impact relative to earnings
who we can persuade to good effect.
It seems like most of what you’re doing and planning should give a boost to any kind of achievement,
That’s our hope.
(You don’t seem to rely on it, but I especially don’t think replaceability is the knockdown argument many people treat it as here.)
Yes, there are major problems with the replaceability argument in full generality.
Even if one is replaceable, if one is replaced, that will divert someone else from something else that’s valuable (in expectation) to fill the role, which will divert someone else from something else that’s valuable (in expectation) to fill the role, etc.
I’d hesitate to call your estimate of the social value you’ll generate a lower bound, as you do, if you’re not sure about the value of the invisible/conventional work you might be persuading people away from. It seems like most of what you’re doing and planning should give a boost to any kind of achievement, but I get the sense that much of the Effective Altruist community underestimates the marginal impact of an exceptional person with a strategic mindset and altruistic leanings in a “conventional” career like engineering, management, engineering/management consulting, industrial or basic research, medicine (and likely law and others, though I have less of an idea there). (You don’t seem to rely on it, but I especially don’t think replaceability is the knockdown argument many people treat it as here.)
For conventional careers, income is a proxy to social value of work, and this serves as a base-line. I think that most people with an innovative flair can do better than this. But there may be opportunities to systematically contribute outsized impact relative to earnings – I’d very much appreciate pointers to places where we can learn more about this subject.
We think that there are people who:
Could be using their spare time in much more impactful ways (e.g. writing for the public rather than just for a few friends)
End up in average paying corporate and academic jobs that don’t have an outsized impact relative to earnings
who we can persuade to good effect.
That’s our hope.
Yes, there are major problems with the replaceability argument in full generality.
Even if one is replaceable, if one is replaced, that will divert someone else from something else that’s valuable (in expectation) to fill the role, which will divert someone else from something else that’s valuable (in expectation) to fill the role, etc.