Agree! Tricky territory. I think it’s fair to take an outside view as a first cut (e.g. how many people survived Everest), then very carefully evaluate if the reference class is relevant. Yudkowsky writes about this quite a bit in places cannot recall which particular place.
Thanks. I will be on the lookout for relevant writings. I’m slowly going through Yudkowsky’s books/posts, so I’m sure I will stumble on it sooner or later.
Agree! Tricky territory. I think it’s fair to take an outside view as a first cut (e.g. how many people survived Everest), then very carefully evaluate if the reference class is relevant. Yudkowsky writes about this quite a bit in places cannot recall which particular place.
Thanks. I will be on the lookout for relevant writings. I’m slowly going through Yudkowsky’s books/posts, so I’m sure I will stumble on it sooner or later.