Going through Hammertime for the second time now. I tried to figure out 10 not too usual ways in which to utilize predictions and forecasting. Not perfectly happy with the list of course, but a few of these ideas do seem (and to my experience actually are; 1 and 2 in particular) quite useful.
Predicting own future actions to calibrate on one’s own behavior
When setting goals, using predictions on the probability of achieving them by a certain date, giving oneself pointers which goals/plans need more refinement
Predicting the same relatively long term things independently at different points in time (without seeing earlier predictions), figuring out how much noise one’s predictions entail (by then comparing many predictions of the same thing, which, if no major updates shifted the odds, should stay about the same (or consistently go up/down slightly over time due to getting closer to the deadline))
Predicting how other people react to concrete events or news, deliberately updating one’s mental model of them in the process
Teaming up with others, meta-predicting whether a particular set of predictions by the other person(s) will end up being about right, over- or underconfident
When buying groceries (or whatever), before you’re done, make a quick intuitive prediction of what the total price will be
When buying fresh fruit or vegetables or anything else that’s likely to spoil, make predictions how likely it is you’re going to eat each of these items in time
Frequently, e.g. yearly, make predictions about your life circumstances in x years, and evaluate them in the future to figure out whether you tend to over- or underestimate how much your life changes over time
Before doing something aversive, make a concrete prediction of how (negative) you’ll experience it, to figure out whether your aversions tend to be overblown
Experiment with intuitive “5 second predictions” vs those supported by more complex models (Fermi estimate, guesstimate etc.) and figure out which level of effort (in any given domain) works best for you; or to frame it differently, figure out whether your system 1 or system 2 is the better forecaster, and maybe look for ways in which both can work together productively
Going through Hammertime for the second time now. I tried to figure out 10 not too usual ways in which to utilize predictions and forecasting. Not perfectly happy with the list of course, but a few of these ideas do seem (and to my experience actually are; 1 and 2 in particular) quite useful.
Predicting own future actions to calibrate on one’s own behavior
When setting goals, using predictions on the probability of achieving them by a certain date, giving oneself pointers which goals/plans need more refinement
Predicting the same relatively long term things independently at different points in time (without seeing earlier predictions), figuring out how much noise one’s predictions entail (by then comparing many predictions of the same thing, which, if no major updates shifted the odds, should stay about the same (or consistently go up/down slightly over time due to getting closer to the deadline))
Predicting how other people react to concrete events or news, deliberately updating one’s mental model of them in the process
Teaming up with others, meta-predicting whether a particular set of predictions by the other person(s) will end up being about right, over- or underconfident
When buying groceries (or whatever), before you’re done, make a quick intuitive prediction of what the total price will be
When buying fresh fruit or vegetables or anything else that’s likely to spoil, make predictions how likely it is you’re going to eat each of these items in time
Frequently, e.g. yearly, make predictions about your life circumstances in x years, and evaluate them in the future to figure out whether you tend to over- or underestimate how much your life changes over time
Before doing something aversive, make a concrete prediction of how (negative) you’ll experience it, to figure out whether your aversions tend to be overblown
Experiment with intuitive “5 second predictions” vs those supported by more complex models (Fermi estimate, guesstimate etc.) and figure out which level of effort (in any given domain) works best for you; or to frame it differently, figure out whether your system 1 or system 2 is the better forecaster, and maybe look for ways in which both can work together productively