I think focusing on the chance of cancer is a red herring. Human brains being what they are, even if you notice you’re privileging the cancer hypothesis, you’re still going to worry. Sure, do the math, but save that result for another calculation.
How much utility are you likely to derive from $1000? How badly does suspecting cancer disturb your peace of mind? And how much is your ability to derive utility going to be reduced when you are without peace of mind?
We could do the math, but it seems clear to me you know something about the shape of these equations: you opted for the biopsy.
I think focusing on the chance of cancer is a red herring. Human brains being what they are, even if you notice you’re privileging the cancer hypothesis, you’re still going to worry. Sure, do the math, but save that result for another calculation.
How much utility are you likely to derive from $1000? How badly does suspecting cancer disturb your peace of mind? And how much is your ability to derive utility going to be reduced when you are without peace of mind?
We could do the math, but it seems clear to me you know something about the shape of these equations: you opted for the biopsy.