ratfic (as i’m using here) typically showcases characters applying lesswrong rationality well.
lesswrong rationality is typically defined as ultimately instrumental to winning.
The empirical answer to that question does appear to be “yes” to some extent, though that’s mostly a couple of very big wins (calling out bitcoin, COVID, and LLMs as important very early relative to even the techie population) rather than a bunch of consistent small wins. And also there have been some pretty spectacular failures.
Assuming ratfic represents LessWrong-style rationality well and assuming LW-style rationality is a good approximation of truly useful instrumental reasoning, then the claim should hold. There’s room for error in both assumptions.
Citation needed.
ratfic (as i’m using here) typically showcases characters applying lesswrong rationality well. lesswrong rationality is typically defined as ultimately instrumental to winning.
LW-rationality(and ratfic by extension) aspires to be instrumental to winning in the real world, whether it in fact does so is an emprical question.
The empirical answer to that question does appear to be “yes” to some extent, though that’s mostly a couple of very big wins (calling out bitcoin, COVID, and LLMs as important very early relative to even the techie population) rather than a bunch of consistent small wins. And also there have been some pretty spectacular failures.
That sounds rather tautological.
Assuming ratfic represents LessWrong-style rationality well and assuming LW-style rationality is a good approximation of truly useful instrumental reasoning, then the claim should hold. There’s room for error in both assumptions.