Your rule of models is flawed. Newton’s mechanical model of the universe is good enough for all practical purposes except where it isn’t. Then you have to go relativistic or quantum. Probabilities only apply to future events. Once events have been observed, the probability changes.
In Newton’s case the real rule (or at least the practical rule) is the meta-rule of when Newton is good enough and what to use when it isn’t. Without that knowledge you can’t form a meta-rule and you don’t know when to believe the model and when not to. You can maybe assess it probabilistically but I wouldn’t want to place much on the result.
Your rule of models is flawed. Newton’s mechanical model of the universe is good enough for all practical purposes except where it isn’t. Then you have to go relativistic or quantum. Probabilities only apply to future events. Once events have been observed, the probability changes.
The real rules have no exceptions
In Newton’s case the real rule (or at least the practical rule) is the meta-rule of when Newton is good enough and what to use when it isn’t. Without that knowledge you can’t form a meta-rule and you don’t know when to believe the model and when not to. You can maybe assess it probabilistically but I wouldn’t want to place much on the result.