We need a new model I think. The purpose of the IHME was to figure out how to allocate hospital resources at the peak. Now we are roughly at or past the peak and we need to figure out how to re-open and what calculated risks are worth taking to ensure that businesses don’t get devastated even more. Hopefully someone is working on it.
Data acquiring ---> social engineering based on model ----> better result
Yes. A better model will be definitely helpful. However, (as pointed out indirectly earlier by someone else), to my best knowledge, there were no good and robust model for large lag dynamic systems. Such kind of model could lead to Chaos and random like result easily. Thus, I believed that increasing the data acquiring capability was the key (South Korea’s approach).
We need a new model I think. The purpose of the IHME was to figure out how to allocate hospital resources at the peak. Now we are roughly at or past the peak and we need to figure out how to re-open and what calculated risks are worth taking to ensure that businesses don’t get devastated even more. Hopefully someone is working on it.
Below is a simplified COVID-19 framework:
Data acquiring ---> social engineering based on model ----> better result
Yes. A better model will be definitely helpful. However, (as pointed out indirectly earlier by someone else), to my best knowledge, there were no good and robust model for large lag dynamic systems. Such kind of model could lead to Chaos and random like result easily. Thus, I believed that increasing the data acquiring capability was the key (South Korea’s approach).