Zvi commenting on his The One Mistake Rule post: “E.g. if you want to bet me that there will be no American Covid-19 deaths in July, I will be very, very surprised.”
Yes, the model isn’t properly sensitive to uncertainties—but the projection that they are near zero isn’t unreasonable, if transmission is stopped.
Zvi commenting on his The One Mistake Rule post: “E.g. if you want to bet me that there will be no American Covid-19 deaths in July, I will be very, very surprised.”
Yes, the model isn’t properly sensitive to uncertainties—but the projection that they are near zero isn’t unreasonable, if transmission is stopped.