They use an agent-based model to extrapolate that the UK variant will reach 50% prevalence in Denmark around 40-50 days after Jan 1.
The model does not account for control loop effects or vaccinations. It says that absent these and with the usual assumptions, Denmark would see a strong peak after 90 days where around 1.4% of the country would be infected at the same time, followed by herd-immunity decline to current infection levels after 180 days.
This follow-up work is also interesting: https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/scenarier_for_udviklingen_i_den_engelske_virusvariant_af_sars-cov-2.pdf?la=da
They use an agent-based model to extrapolate that the UK variant will reach 50% prevalence in Denmark around 40-50 days after Jan 1.
The model does not account for control loop effects or vaccinations. It says that absent these and with the usual assumptions, Denmark would see a strong peak after 90 days where around 1.4% of the country would be infected at the same time, followed by herd-immunity decline to current infection levels after 180 days.