Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the study that was performed, but from the articles it seems that this study has only been going on for 3 years now? In which case, any one sitting at the top of the heap is still pretty likely to have gotten there largely through luck. With a large sample size it’s entirely possible for at least a couple of people to ‘beat the odds’ and get a number of questions correct again and again, without necessarily being any better than those who did poorly.
Even with a fairly significant number of questions being asked and rated, it does not appear to be a long enough study to start suggesting those at the top have better skills as opposed to better luck.
They took the best of one year, and the next year everyone in that group still did very good. They didn’t regress to the mean. And the reported effect size seems very large.
Perhaps I’m misunderstanding the study that was performed, but from the articles it seems that this study has only been going on for 3 years now? In which case, any one sitting at the top of the heap is still pretty likely to have gotten there largely through luck. With a large sample size it’s entirely possible for at least a couple of people to ‘beat the odds’ and get a number of questions correct again and again, without necessarily being any better than those who did poorly.
Even with a fairly significant number of questions being asked and rated, it does not appear to be a long enough study to start suggesting those at the top have better skills as opposed to better luck.
They took the best of one year, and the next year everyone in that group still did very good. They didn’t regress to the mean. And the reported effect size seems very large.