I hadn’t heard of the Delphi method before, so this paper brought it to my attention.
It’s nice to see concrete forecasting questions laid out in a principled way. Now the perhaps harder step is trying to get traction on them ;^).
Note: The tables in pages 9 and 10 are a little blurry to read. They are also not text, so it’s not easy to copy-paste them into another format for better viewing. I think it’d be good to update the images to either be clearer or translate it into a text table.
Now the perhaps harder step is trying to get traction on them
Yes, very much so. We’re working on a few parts of this now, as part of a different project, but I agree that it’s tricky. And there are a number of other things that seem like potentially very useful projects if others are interested in collaborations, or just some ideas / suggestions about how they could be approached.
(On the tables, unfortunately the tables were pasted in as images from another program. We should definitely see if we can get higher-resolution, even if we can’t convert to text easily.)
arXiv doesn’t support pdfs that are composed of different pdfs. Below is a link to full resolution versions of the tables, but I wasn’t able to splice these into the arXiv submission. I will reformat the tables for a revised version.
I hadn’t heard of the Delphi method before, so this paper brought it to my attention.
It’s nice to see concrete forecasting questions laid out in a principled way. Now the perhaps harder step is trying to get traction on them ;^).
Note: The tables in pages 9 and 10 are a little blurry to read. They are also not text, so it’s not easy to copy-paste them into another format for better viewing. I think it’d be good to update the images to either be clearer or translate it into a text table.
Yes, very much so. We’re working on a few parts of this now, as part of a different project, but I agree that it’s tricky. And there are a number of other things that seem like potentially very useful projects if others are interested in collaborations, or just some ideas / suggestions about how they could be approached.
(On the tables, unfortunately the tables were pasted in as images from another program. We should definitely see if we can get higher-resolution, even if we can’t convert to text easily.)
arXiv doesn’t support pdfs that are composed of different pdfs. Below is a link to full resolution versions of the tables, but I wasn’t able to splice these into the arXiv submission. I will reformat the tables for a revised version.
http://www.rossgritz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/tables.pdf