We’re talking about the impact of an event though. The very question is only asking about worlds where the event actually happens.
If I don’t know whether an event is going to happen and I want to know the impact it will have on me, I compare futures where the event happens to my current idea of the future, based on observation(which also includes some probability mass for the event in question, but not certainty).
In summary, I’m not updating to “X happened with certainty” rather I am estimating the utility in that counterfactual case.
Nitpick: one should update based on observations, as opposed to “X has occurred with certainty”.
We’re talking about the impact of an event though. The very question is only asking about worlds where the event actually happens.
If I don’t know whether an event is going to happen and I want to know the impact it will have on me, I compare futures where the event happens to my current idea of the future, based on observation(which also includes some probability mass for the event in question, but not certainty).
In summary, I’m not updating to “X happened with certainty” rather I am estimating the utility in that counterfactual case.