I included this under “input the right data”. Obviously, if you assign a prior of 10^-(10^(10^100)) to the Sun rising, you aren’t going to get a significant probability for it happening no matter how many times you watch it rise.
“Are there any links or references for this? That sounds like fascinating reading.”
“Yes you can. All it needs is the wrong prior.”
I included this under “input the right data”. Obviously, if you assign a prior of 10^-(10^(10^100)) to the Sun rising, you aren’t going to get a significant probability for it happening no matter how many times you watch it rise.
“Are there any links or references for this? That sounds like fascinating reading.”
See Feynman’s QED for a popular explanation of quantum math, and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_relativity for GR (I’m not aware of any good books on GR that don’t have a lot of fancy math).
“Evolutions would tend to give humans brains with beliefs that largely matched the world, else they would be weeded out.”
This is not really true; see http://www.singinst.org/upload/CFAI/anthro.html#observer.