Just to make sure I understand prior and posterior
over models, is the following about right?
Alice starts with a prior of 0.999 that
non-vanity
plates are generated basically randomly (according
to some rule of “N letters followed by M digits”
or whatever, and with rules e.g. preventing swear
words).
Alice sees “3817” (having seen many other 4-digit
plates previously).
Alice’s posterior probability over models is still
about 0.999 on the same model.
Just to make sure I understand prior and posterior over models, is the following about right?
Alice starts with a prior of 0.999 that non-vanity plates are generated basically randomly (according to some rule of “N letters followed by M digits” or whatever, and with rules e.g. preventing swear words).
Alice sees “3817” (having seen many other 4-digit plates previously).
Alice’s posterior probability over models is still about 0.999 on the same model.
Yeah.