Once we have ems, it’s certain that enough computer power would be available for AGI.
My speculation is that the sort of people who would be first in line to be uploaded would also tend to be the sort of people who, given enough computer power and time, might be able to brute-force some sort of AGI. So, if somehow we start making ems before we get FAI, my guess is that AGI will be forthcoming quite shortly, and it will be unfriendly.
But I have a hard time seeing how we can actually get that much computer power without some fool having already made some sort of UFAI.
(All this is under the assumption that ems will not be terribly efficient at first because we’ll be running them without actually understanding them—thus simulating perhaps 10x-100x+ more stuff than we actually need to.)
So, I say more likely to #1, and less likely to #2.
Once we have ems, it’s certain that enough computer power would be available for AGI.
My speculation is that the sort of people who would be first in line to be uploaded would also tend to be the sort of people who, given enough computer power and time, might be able to brute-force some sort of AGI. So, if somehow we start making ems before we get FAI, my guess is that AGI will be forthcoming quite shortly, and it will be unfriendly.
But I have a hard time seeing how we can actually get that much computer power without some fool having already made some sort of UFAI.
(All this is under the assumption that ems will not be terribly efficient at first because we’ll be running them without actually understanding them—thus simulating perhaps 10x-100x+ more stuff than we actually need to.)
So, I say more likely to #1, and less likely to #2.