I had an almost identical reaction when I was first introduced to this problem; when I said so to my philosophy professor, she told me you had to “bite a bullet” to think that a non-black non-raven object is evidence for black ravens. After going home and re-reading Eliezer’s Intro to Bayes’ Theorem the answer seemed even more obvious, and I couldn’t figure out why anyone would think otherwise. I wrote down a few notes and went into the next class ready to argue the point, but before the discussion began my professor went on a digression about how she is (gasp!) a non-reductionist. I made a mental note to reread “Against Modal Logics” and didn’t give the raven matter any more thought.
I had an almost identical reaction when I was first introduced to this problem; when I said so to my philosophy professor, she told me you had to “bite a bullet” to think that a non-black non-raven object is evidence for black ravens. After going home and re-reading Eliezer’s Intro to Bayes’ Theorem the answer seemed even more obvious, and I couldn’t figure out why anyone would think otherwise. I wrote down a few notes and went into the next class ready to argue the point, but before the discussion began my professor went on a digression about how she is (gasp!) a non-reductionist. I made a mental note to reread “Against Modal Logics” and didn’t give the raven matter any more thought.