10% for 2015 or earlier. 50% for 2020 or earlier, 90% for 2030 or earlier.
At least 50%.
I think no human level AGI is necessary for that. A well calibrated worm level AGI could be enough. I am nearly sure, that it is possible, but the actual situation of the creating (accidentally or not) self enhancing “worms” is at least 50% probale to 2030. It needn’t to be a catastrophe, but it may be. 50-50 prior again. The speed is almost certain to be fast. Say in days after launch.
I am not sure what they could do about this. FAI as a defense will most probably be too late anyway,
Yes.
Many. Theorems proving Watson is just one of them. Or WolframAlpha programer, for example.
10% for 2015 or earlier. 50% for 2020 or earlier, 90% for 2030 or earlier.
At least 50%.
I think no human level AGI is necessary for that. A well calibrated worm level AGI could be enough. I am nearly sure, that it is possible, but the actual situation of the creating (accidentally or not) self enhancing “worms” is at least 50% probale to 2030. It needn’t to be a catastrophe, but it may be. 50-50 prior again. The speed is almost certain to be fast. Say in days after launch.
I am not sure what they could do about this. FAI as a defense will most probably be too late anyway,
Yes.
Many. Theorems proving Watson is just one of them. Or WolframAlpha programer, for example.
A bug. I can count 1,2,3,4,5,6 .. and did so in the above post. Visible under Edit option, but not when published. Funny,
Why is there a comma after the 3?
THNX. Now, when the comma has gone, the numbers are okay,