The framework is AI strategy nearcasting: trying to answer key strategic questions about transformative AI, under the assumption that key events (e.g., the development of transformative AI) will happen in a world that is otherwise relatively similar to today’s.
Usage of “nearcasting” here feels pretty fake. “Nowcasting” is a thing because 538/meteorology/etc. has a track record of success in forecasting and decent feedback loops, and extrapolating those a bit seems neat.
I spent a bit thinking about a replacement term, and I came up with “scenario planning absent radical transformations analysis”, or SPARTA for short. Not perfect, though.
Usage of “nearcasting” here feels pretty fake. “Nowcasting” is a thing because 538/meteorology/etc. has a track record of success in forecasting and decent feedback loops, and extrapolating those a bit seems neat.
But as used in this case, feedback loops are poor, and it just feels like a different analytical beast. So the resemblance to “forecasting” seems a bit icky, particularly if you are going to reference “nearcasting” without explanation it in subsequent posts: <https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/75CtdFj79sZrGpGiX/success-without-dignity-a-nearcasting-story-of-avoiding>.
I spent a bit thinking about a replacement term, and I came up with “scenario planning absent radical transformations analysis”, or SPARTA for short. Not perfect, though.