If it’s a 50% chance that 99.99% of worlds are robust and 50% chance that 99.99% are fragile, then the vast majority of EV comes from the first option where the vast majority of worlds are robust.
You’re right, the nature of uncertainty doesn’t actually matter for the EV. My bad.
I think it does actually, although I’m not sure how exactly. See Logical vs physical risk aversion.
If it’s a 50% chance that 99.99% of worlds are robust and 50% chance that 99.99% are fragile, then the vast majority of EV comes from the first option where the vast majority of worlds are robust.
You’re right, the nature of uncertainty doesn’t actually matter for the EV. My bad.
I think it does actually, although I’m not sure how exactly. See Logical vs physical risk aversion.