I actually considered revising all my estimates using the rubric “What would I pay for ten shares of this prediction on Intrade?” But I decided that that method would likely introduce a strong bias based on my financial situation, even if I tried to imagine myself to be in a financial situation closer to the median.
I actually considered revising all my estimates using the rubric “What would I pay for ten shares of this prediction on Intrade?” But I decided that that method would likely introduce a strong bias based on my financial situation, even if I tried to imagine myself to be in a financial situation closer to the median.